While headlines focus on Iran, oil and Washington, Wall Street’s deal machine is running at one of its fastest paces ever. JPMorgan’s Dorothee Blessing says 2026 could set an all-time record for mergers and IPOs, driven by a year-end rush, Bloomberg reported.

Global deal volume reached about $2.6 trillion in the first half, up roughly 30% from a year earlier. The record is $5.3 trillion, set in 2021.

Americans should expect to pay more to stay warm this winter. The National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) projects that home heating costs will rise 8.7% across all fuel types, to an average of about $1,030 per household, according to its September 14 forecast. NEADA notes that is more than 2.5 times the rate of inflation.

Families who heat with oil will be hit much harder. NEADA projects they will pay 31.3% more, with average seasonal bills of about $2,300, Quartz reported.

Why: two wars and one oil market

• The Iran war is the main driver. Fighting around the Strait of Hormuz, a U.S. oil blockade of Iran and attacks on Gulf energy sites have kept crude near $100 a barrel. Heating oil is refined from crude, so it moves first and furthest.
• Russia’s war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year, keeps pressure on global energy. Europe’s turn away from Russian gas since 2022 has tightened world natural-gas markets and pulled more U.S. gas overseas as LNG.
• Everything else costs more too. With electricity, food and rent already up, higher heating bills land on budgets that are already stretched.

Average heating bill: about $1,030, up 8.7%. Heating-oil homes: about $2,300, up 31%. (NEADA)

Who gets hit hardest

New England and the rest of the Northeast rely on heating oil far more than the rest of the country, so Boston-area households, landlords and small businesses will feel this first. Older homes, renters in oil-heated buildings, seniors on fixed incomes and restaurants and shops with high heating loads are most exposed.

What to do now, before the cold

1. Lock in or pre-buy heating oil or propane if your dealer offers a fixed-price or budget plan. Compare at least two dealers.
2. Get a tune-up. A clean, serviced furnace or boiler burns less fuel.
3. Seal the leaks: weatherstrip doors and windows, and insulate the attic if you can. Ask your utility about free or discounted energy audits.
4. Apply for help early. LIHEAP, the federal home-energy assistance program, and state fuel-assistance programs open in the fall and funds can run out. In Massachusetts, apply through your local community action agency.
5. Call your utility before you fall behind. Payment plans and winter shutoff protections are easier to set up early.

For business owners

Budget for higher heating and energy costs in Q4 and Q1, check whether your leases pass heating costs through, and watch oil: our markets briefing tracks what the Iran talks could do to prices.

Wall Street is trading the headlines. On Tuesday, September 22, the Nasdaq Composite posted its second straight record close as oil prices eased, while the Dow finished lower and bank stocks slid, according to Quartz and Yahoo Finance. The S&P 500 was roughly flat.

Under the surface, the moves have been large and fast, and they are driven by geopolitics more than earnings.