With Election Day on Nov. 3, 2026, less than two weeks away, the Massachusetts governor’s race absorbed three jolts in one week: the Republican ticket lost its lieutenant governor candidate to a drunken-driving arrest, the House killed a gas tax holiday that both major candidates had endorsed, and a new poll put Gov. Maura Healey ahead by 22 points.

A running mate exits after a New Bedford crash

Shawn Oliver, the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor, suspended his campaign on Sunday, Oct. 18, a day after a late-night crash in New Bedford. Police said Oliver’s vehicle struck multiple parked vehicles before overturning on Dartmouth Street, and he was taken to a hospital with injuries, according to the Associated Press. Boston 25 News reported that officers arrived around 11:40 p.m. on Saturday, Oct. 17, and found five vehicles involved.

Oliver, 42, a New Bedford city councilor first elected in 2023 and a state corrections officer, was charged with operating under the influence of liquor, negligent operation of a motor vehicle, a marked lanes violation and speeding. The New Bedford Light first reported the arrest. He pleaded not guilty on Monday, Oct. 19, was released on personal recognizance and was barred from driving, with a next court date in November, Boston 25 reported.

In a post on X announcing his exit, Oliver wrote that “the election is too important to be overshadowed by personal matters,” the AP reported. The state Department of Correction placed him on restricted duty at the Massachusetts Treatment Center while it reviews the case, spokesperson Lindsay Corcoran told the AP. New Bedford Mayor Jon Mitchell, a Democrat, called the allegations deeply concerning and said the public deserved to hear from Oliver directly.

Minogue’s ballot problem

Republican gubernatorial nominee Mike Minogue, a businessman and military veteran, said he had asked Oliver to step aside and would formally request his resignation if elected. Because ballots were already printed, Oliver’s name remains on them. At a Monday press conference, Minogue asked supporters to vote the ticket as printed, warning that crossing out Oliver’s name or writing in another candidate could void the vote, according to Boston 25 News.

Minogue said he would leave the lieutenant governor’s post vacant if he wins, relying on the state’s existing succession order, and his campaign estimated that would save more than $300,000 in salary and security costs. Healey, speaking the same day, described the Minogue campaign as showing “chaos,” noting that Oliver was the second running mate the campaign has lost, Boston 25 reported. The lieutenant governor’s duties are largely ceremonial, but the officeholder is first in line if a governor resigns or dies. Healey’s running mate is incumbent Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll.

Where the polls stand

A Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll released Tuesday, Oct. 20, found Healey with more than 58 percent support to Minogue’s 36 percent among 500 registered voters surveyed Oct. 14-17, with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, according to State House News Service reporting carried by WGBH. A UMass Amherst/WCVB poll released a day earlier put the race at 56-31.

The same Suffolk survey found a more complicated mood beneath the horse race. More than 42 percent of respondents said Massachusetts has gotten worse over the past four years, roughly 40 percent said it has stayed the same, and just over 52 percent said the state is headed in the right direction. About 21 percent said they had never heard of Minogue. Asked what strains their finances most, respondents most often named utility and heating bills (almost 23 percent) and gas prices (11 percent).

Down the ballot, the poll showed U.S. Sen. Ed Markey leading Republican John Deaton 60 percent to about 31 percent, and Attorney General Andrea Campbell leading Michael Walsh 54 percent to roughly 28 percent. Among the nine statewide ballot questions, Question 1, which would extend the public records law to the governor’s office and Legislature, drew the strongest support at more than 62 percent, while Question 8, which would repeal the recreational marijuana laws, drew about 21 percent.

The gas tax holiday dies in the House

The one policy both candidates agreed on did not survive the week. Healey had proposed a two-month suspension of the state’s 24-cent-per-gallon gas tax, a measure estimated to cost about $120 million, as part of a supplemental budget to close the books on fiscal 2026. The House Ways and Means Committee, chaired by Rep. Aaron Michlewitz, left the holiday out of its $2.35 billion redraft, WBUR reported, with Michlewitz citing the loss of transportation revenue and doubts that savings would reach drivers.

On the House floor on Wednesday, Oct. 21, Rep. Todd Smola of Warren offered an amendment to restore the suspension with the backing of the full Republican caucus. It failed 30-121, and the underlying bill passed 152-0, the Daily Hampshire Gazette reported. House Speaker Ron Mariano dismissed the idea as gimmickry, and Rep. James Arciero, co-chair of the Transportation Committee, estimated the average driver would save about $25.

Healey’s office pushed back. “There is nothing gimmicky about a proposal to give gas tax relief to people,” a spokesperson said, according to the Gazette. Minogue, who has pledged to suspend the tax whenever prices reach $4 a gallon, called the House vote “a political stunt, pure and simple,” NBC Boston reported. The statewide average stood at about $4.28 a gallon, according to AAA figures cited by NBC Boston.

What else is in the $2.35 billion bill

The House package directs roughly $1.8 billion in gross spending to MassHealth, about $160 million to snow and ice removal paid from surtax revenue, $79 million toward unemployment insurance interest repayments, and $10 million to the Massachusetts Life Sciences Center, according to NBC Boston. It also adds disclosure requirements for AI-generated political ads and bars constitutional officers from using public money for ads featuring their own name, voice or likeness. The Senate, which did not hold a formal session this week, will write its own version; Michlewitz told WBUR he hopes to send a compromise to the governor by Nov. 15.

The Newsroom Take

Each of this week’s developments cuts against the Republican ticket, but the poll numbers suggest the race was not close before Oliver’s arrest and the gas tax fight. What the week did change is the shape of the closing argument. Minogue’s message of affordability now has to compete with questions about his own vetting, and his gas tax pledge collides with a Democratic House that just voted it down 121-30. Healey, meanwhile, finds herself on the same side of the gas tax question as her opponent and opposed by her party’s legislative leadership, a split that will matter more for the Senate negotiation in November than for the election itself. The number worth watching is not the 22-point margin but the 42 percent who say the state has gotten worse: that is the electorate the next governor, almost certainly Healey, will have to answer to on heating bills and housing in January.

What it means for you

• Early voting and mail ballots are already in circulation; a vote for the Minogue ticket counts as printed, and voters should not alter the lieutenant governor line.
• Do not expect pump prices to drop from a state tax holiday before Election Day. The House has rejected it, and the Senate is not in formal session this week.
• Nine ballot questions appear on the Nov. 3 ballot, including measures on public records, same-day registration, an all-party primary and the 2024 gun law. Read them before you vote.
• Business owners should watch the Senate’s version of the supplemental budget, which could still change the unemployment insurance and political advertising provisions.

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